An open letter to the Class of 2011, and to the Class of 2012

Last year I wrote an open letter to the Class of 2010, and to the Class of 2011 as a supplemental posting to my Guide to Effective Job Search and Career Development and I decided to write another letter in follow-up for this year’s graduates and for next year’s. I have continued to post on job search and career development; last year I noted in my letter that counting supplemental postings that one was my 81st. This year my open letter appears as my 150th installment to the guide with that number still growing.

National unemployment figures in the United States are still very weak. The overall US economy is well into recovery, at least if you look to production, sales and profits measures for guidance but this is the third recovery from recession in a row that has started and sustained for significant periods of time as a truly jobless recovery. With increases in the numbers of people seeking to enter the workforce due to slow but steady US population increases, coupled with the vast pool of citizens out of work and looking, or critically under-employed even the best estimates suggest we will not see a low enough national unemployment rate to qualify as “fully employed” until at least 2016. My point here is not to spread doom and gloom, but rather to point out something that I am sure is already fairly obvious to most if not all. The Classes of 2011 and 2012 will face significant challenges when entering the workforce after graduation.

There are basically two workforce economics models floating around in the press that would address this as to cause. One of them is that most recessions are simply cyclical troughs in a recurring peak to trough economy, but that recent jobless recoveries in general and our most recent Great Recession are different. According to that understanding, the core economy has shifted and we are now seeing a more fundamental downturn brought about by long term and even permanent shifts in workforce needs. Some industries are shrinking and some may just effectively disappear, at least as significant factors in representing US economic strength. According to this, job recovery will only really happen as new industries open up and expand to fill the gaps. If this model were significantly accurate, we would expect to see at least some patterns in unemployment with some industries much more gravely affected than others – unless that is, this shift was so fundamental that it impacted on all industries and on how they do business.

The other basic conceptualizing model here is that businesses do not hire in greater numbers because of liquidity concerns. Businesses, industries and the economy as a whole collapsed inward and at great cost to many, and as long as businesses can do the same or even more with the same or even less, they will not hire. Hiring is a long term investment and it carries with it potentially significant long term costs. According to this, as businesses and the overall marketplace become more confident again as to long term stability they will start hiring in larger numbers.

But in either case, and regardless of underlying cause the basic numbers tell a story as to how long it would take to bring unemployment rates back down to under 6% – at least until 2016 and regardless of underlying cause for the jobless rate we are facing now.

So what would I recommend for the here and now and to improve employment chances for new and soon to graduate job candidates? This is basically the same question I focused on last year in my first letter of this type in this Guide.

• Prepare for types of jobs that are likely to open up in greater availability with a fuller, employment-driven recovery. This definitely includes developing the types of computer network-based skills that employers will need. For an earlier generation this would have meant demonstrated comfort and familiarity working on a desktop computer, but now this also means cloud computing and computing and communicating on and through a wide range of platforms and channels. Here, the important issue is in being able to present yourself as having skills and experience that bring out the value in this, on the job.
• Consider supplementing your degree with professional certifications, as a way to stand out. Certifications per se cannot replace hands-on experience on the job but they can help land the entry level positions that would bring that hands-on experience, vital for moving forward in a career.
• Look to get your foot in a door, and to taking a first career step. This is perhaps the most important point I could raise here. Jobs change and careers shift, change and evolve and everyone entering the workforce can expect to see this happen many times for them. Get a job and even if it is in an industry or functional area you would not want to stay in long term. Get experience in the workforce and then plan and develop your career from there, developing every transferrable skill you can while doing so.

I would also suggest reading my letter to the classes of 2010 and 2011 as the points I raised there still fundamentally apply. I also point out my various series on finding a new job and on starting in one through the end of the probationary period there (see Guide to Effective Job Search and Career Development). And good fortune moving forward.

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