Platt Perspective on Business and Technology

Moore’s law, software design lock-in, and the constraints faced when evolving artificial intelligence 6

This is my 6th posting to a short series on the growth potential and constraints inherent in innovation, as realized as a practical matter (see Reexamining the Fundamentals 2, Section VIII for Parts 1-5.) And this is also my third posting to this series, to explicitly discuss emerging and still forming artificial intelligence technologies as they are and will be impacted upon by software lock-in and its imperatives, and by shared but more arbitrarily determined constraints such as Moore’s law (see Part 4 and Part 5.)

I began discussing overall patterns of technology implementation in an advancing artificial intelligence agent context in Part 4, where I cited a set of possible scenarios that might significantly arise for that in the coming decades, for how artificial intelligence capabilities in general might proliferate, as originally offered in:

• Rose, D. (2014) Enchanted Objects: design, human desire and the internet of things. Scribner.

And to briefly repeat from what I offered there in this context, for smoother continuity of narrative, I cited and began discussing those four possible scenarios (using Rose’s names for them) as:

1. Terminal world, in which most or even essentially all human/artificial intelligence agent interactions take place through the “glass slabs and painted pixels” of smart phone and other separating, boundary maintaining interfaces.
2. Prosthetics, in which a major thrust of this technology development is predicated upon human improvement, with the internalization of these new technology capabilities within us.
3. Animism, and the emergence of artificial intelligence ubiquity through the development and distribution of seemingly endless numbers of smart robotic and artificially intelligence-enabled nodes.
4. And Enchanted Objects, in which the once routine and mundane of our everyday life becomes imbued with amazing new capabilities. Here, unlike the immediately preceding scenario, focus of attention and of action takes place in specific devices and their circumstances that individually arise to prominence of attention and for many if not most people, where the real impact of the animism scenario would be found in a mass effect gestalt arising from what are collectively impactful, but individually mostly unnoticed smart(er) parts.

I at least briefly argued the case there for assuming that we will in fact come to see some combination of these scenarios arise in actual fact, as each at least contextually comes to the top as a best approach for at least some set of recurring implementation contexts. And I effectively begin this posting by challenging a basic assumption that I built into that assessment:

• The tacit and all but axiomatic assumption that enters into a great deal of the discussion and analysis of artificial intelligence, and of most other still-emerging technologies as well,
• That while disruptively novel can and does occur as a matter of principle, it is unlikely to happen and certainly right now in any given technology development context that is actively currently being pursued, along some apparently fruitful current developmental path.

All four of the above repeated and restated scenario options have their roots in our here and now and its more readily predictable linear development moving forward. It is of the nature of disruptively new and novel that it comes without noticeable warning and precisely in ways that would be unexpected. The truly disruptively novel innovations that arise, come as if lightning out of a clear blue sky, and they blindside everyone affected by them for their unexpected suddenness and for their emerging impact, as they begin to gain traction in implementation and use. What I am leading up to here is very simple, at least in principle, even if the precise nature of the disruptively new and novel limits our ability to foresee in advance the details of what is to come of that:

• While all of the first four development and innovation scenarios as repeated above, will almost certainly come to play at least something of a role in our strongly artificially intelligence-shaped world to come, we also have to expect all of this to develop and play out in disruptively new ways too, and both as sources of specific contextually relevant solutions for how best to implement this new technology, and for how all of these more context-specific solutions are in effect going to be glued together to form overall, organized systems.

I would specifically stress the two sides to that more generally and open-endedly stated fifth option here, that I just touched upon in passing in the above bullet point. I write here of more locally, contextually specific implementation solutions, here for how artificial intelligence will connect to the human experience. But I also write of the possibility that overarching connectivity frameworks that all more local context solutions would fit into, are likely going to emerge as disruptively new too. And with that noted as a general prediction as to what is likely to come, I turn here to at least consider some of the how and why details of that, that would lead me to make this prediction in the first place.

Let’s start by rethinking some of the implications of a point that I made in Part 4 of this series when first addressing the issues of artificial intelligence, and of artificial intelligence agents per se. We do not even know what artificial general intelligence means, at least at anything like an implementation-capable level of understanding. We do not in fact even know what general intelligence is per se and even just in a more strictly human context, at least where that would mean our knowing what it is and how it arises in anything like a mechanistic sense. And in fact we are, in a fundamental sense, still learning what even just artificial specialized and single task intelligence is and how that might best be implemented.

All of this still-present, significantly impactful lack of knowledge and insight raises the likelihood that all that we know and think that we know here, is going to be upended by the novel, the unexpected and the disruptively so – and probably when we least expect that.

And with this stated, I raise and challenge a second basic assumption that by now should be more generally disavowed, but that still hangs on. In a few short decades from now, for all of the billions of human online nodes: human-operated devices and virtual devices that we connect online through, that will collectively only account for a small fraction of the overall online connected universe: the overall connectiverse that we are increasingly living in. All of the rest: all of the soon to be vast majority of the rest of this will all be device-to-device in nature, and fit into what we now refer to as the internet of things. And pertinently to this discussion that means that a vast majority of the connectedness that is touched upon in the above four (five?) scenarios, is not going to be about human connectedness per se at all, except perhaps indirectly. And this very specifically leads me back to what I view as the real imperative of the fifth scenario: the disruptively new and novel pattern of overall connectivity that I made note of above, and certainly when considering the glue that binds our emerging overall systems together with all of the overarching organizational implications that that option and possibility raises.

Ultimately, what works and both at a more needs-specific contextual level there, and at an overall systems connecting and interconnecting level, is going to be about optimization, with aesthetics and human tastes critically important and certainly for technology solution acceptance – for human-to-human and human-to-artificial intelligence agent contexts. But in a strictly, or even just primarily artificial intelligence agent-to-artificial intelligence agent and dumb device-to-artificial intelligence agent context, efficiency measures will dominate that are not necessarily human usage-centric. And they will shape and drive any evolutionary trends that arise as these overall systems continue to advance and evolve (see Part 3 and Part 5 for their discussions of adaptive peak models and related evolutionary trend describing conceptual tools, as they would apply to this type of context.)

If I were to propose one likely detail that I fully expect to arise in any such overall organizing, disruptively novel interconnection scenario, it is that the nuts and bolts details of the still just emerging overall networking system that I write of here, will most likely reside at and function at a level that is not explicitly visible and certainly to human participants in it, unless directly connected into and in any of the contextual scenario solutions that arise and that are developed and built into it: human-to-human, human-to-device or intelligent agent, or device or agent-to-device or agent. And this overarching technology, optimized in large part by the numerically compelling pressures of device or agent-to-device or agent connectivity needs, will probably take the form of a set of universally accepted and adhered to connectivity protocols: rules of the road that are not going to be all that human-centric.

I am going to continue this discussion in a next series installment, where I will at least selectively examine some of the core issues that I have been addressing up to here in greater detail, and how their realized implementations might be shaped into our day-to-day reality. And in anticipation of that line of discussion to come, I will do so from a perspective of considering how essentially all of the functionally significant elements to any such system and at all levels of organizational resolution that would arise in it, are rapidly coevolving and taking form, and both in their own immediately connected-in contexts and in any realistic larger overall rapidly emerging connections-defined context too. And this will of necessity bring me back to reconsider some of the first issues that I raised in this series too.

Meanwhile, you can find this and related material at Ubiquitous Computing and Communications – everywhere all the time 3 and also see Page 1 and Page 2 of that directory. And I also include this in my Reexamining the Fundamentals 2 directory as topics Section VIII. And also see its Page 1.

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